North Sails Weather Forecast – Thursday 28 Jan
Posted onTHU 28 8.30am
TODAY
More cloud around this morning and an offshore SW-W breeze of 5-8 kts.
It should be fairly sunny today with another reasonably good N-NNW sea breeze in by around midday.
BUT – a front is approaching. It will be coming north during the day, but won’t cross Auckland until mid evening and won’t reach the BOI until early tomorrow morning.
This front will have an influence on the wind aloft – from SW then W and that is not a good angle for the east coast sea breeze and the SW sea breeze from the west coast will come across this afternoon – firstly weakening the sea breeze across the Bay and then finally replacing it.
All of that happens in the mid and later afternoon – the NNW sea breeze will peak early, then soften and will probably shift back left before being overtaken from the other coast breeze from SW then SSW.
FORECAST (average range tws, no gust)
08 obs SW-W/5-8
10 220-250/3-6
12 variable then 340-360/12-15
14 340-360/13-16 easing
16 W-SW/8-12
18 200-220/10-14
20 180-200/9-12
FRI 29
S front across around 3am then a fresh S to SSE wind all day; always stronger breeze offshore and a little less inside the Bay
FORECAST (average range tws, no gust)
08 180-200/15-20
10 180-200/18-24
12 170-190/18-23
14 170-190/18-22
16 160-180/17-21
18 160-180/16-20
20 160-180/16-20
AHEAD
The next high pressure is well south and that will push an E front across the BOP and onto the east coast of the upper North Island – that E change will arrive with cloud and a few showers early on Saturday morning – that will be the start of a week of E winds.
However, they should be strong with the first of a few tropical lows coming south, but not too close.
The global models are still apart in exactly how close the first of the tropical lows will be to the BOI – GFS still the closest with E/20 on TUE 02 and WED 03.
The EC model has peak E wind and showers on THU 04-FRI 05 while the aussie model have the low further away with high pressure spreading across much of NZ by mid week – and the E winds are generally less than 12-15 kts.
Forecast models still struggling with the system and how close it might come????
End